2014-04-23

Financial distress: Growing NPAs



Gross NPAs of commercial banks have been on upward trajectory in past two years as the economy has grown at its slowest pace in more than a decade. Loans and advances swelled to Rs.1.79 trillion by the end of December 2012 from Rs.1.32 trillion at the quarter ended in March 2012, and to Rs.2.43 trillion at the end of the December 2013 quarter.  Rs.85 trillion of Indian banking industry is stressed by the consistently increasing Non Performing Assets (NPAs).

Loans and advances provided by banks to its customer for any pre stated activities, say investments, are Assets to the bank. The loan turns as NPA when instalment of principle amount or interest component is not paid for 90 days from the due date. Thus Bad loans are the assets that cease to generate income for the bank.

One can justify this rise in level of NPAs through number of reasons like: 
  1.   Lethargic procedure of sanctioning and disbursement of the loan: For instance say, a manufacturing company has outlined the framework to step up new plants by forecasting growth in near future but lethargic documentation for sanctioning and disbursement could take months of time in completion of documentation process which delays the investment, result in slipping the opportunity of generating profit in heydays.
  2. Economic slowdown: Investment made by speculators in mega projects during boom phase of 2004–08 are not providing any fruitful results because of global slowdown and pushing borrowers in critical situations where they are not able to repay their dues.
  3. Time taken by Government in approval of projects: Due to extensive corruption in government bodies, stringent government policies and most importantly “the willingness of government” was not able to clear suspicion or uncertainty over many projects which could have been resolved easily. Environment clearance is the major hurdle before major projects whose completion is time bound in nature, resulting in defaulter in repayment of their finance. 
  4.  Willful defaulters: As per the RBI guidelines, willful defaulters are the ones who defaulted in meeting its repayment of their obligations to the lenders even when it has the capacity to honour such obligation or the ones who defaulted in meeting its repayment of their obligations to the lenders and has not utilized the finance for the specific purpose for which it was availed of but diverted the funds to some other deeds. 
  5.  Priority sector lending (PSL): One of the reasons of continuously rising NPAs could be the obligations needs to meet by commercial banks especially public sector banks (PSBs). Sanctioning loans and advances to priority sector result in long list of NPAs. PSL mainly refer to the section of society which do not get sufficient finance on time which primarily comprises of weaker sections of society like farmers and small scale industries mainly due to few reasons mentioned below:
  • Lack of Credit Worthiness of the individual/firm to repay the debt
  • Lack of collateral security of the individual/firm borrower
  • Lack of adequate documents needed to be qualifies to get a loan
Solution and some preventive measure Government and Banks should adopt in order to bring down the sky touching NPAs:
  1. Relaxation in rules and regulations: Need to relax stringent rules and speed up the process clearance of projects which result in completion of mega projects in India in a time-bound manner which is an urgent need of hour to bring down NPAs in near future and to achieve the desired economic growth.
  2. Regular follow up: RBI had outlined action plan to tackle NPAs which help banks to identify the stressed amount long before it turns into NPAs by creating Special Mention Accounts (SMA). The account should be categorised as SMA 1 if overdue remains for 30 days & SMA 2 if remains overdue more than 30 days to 89 days. This helps in early identification of potential defaulter hence, efforts for recovery of due within the time to be done. Regular follow up and notices should be sent to borrower.
  3.  Asset Restructuring Companies (ARCs): ARCs are specialised entities which pick up stressed assets of banks and financial institutions at a discount and make recovery. And aid banks and financial institute to off load bad assets from their books of account and allow them to focus of recovery plans. RBI should encourage establishment of ARCs which facilitate other financial institutes in written off their bad loans from their balance sheet and allow them to focus toward constructive objective
India is a growing economy, hence investments are the need of hour to maintain growth trajectory. And NPAs are modern banking’s Achilles heel with some bad investment or investments toward PSL which cannot be avoided but if certain adequate set of rules and guidelines are formulated and ease some stringent norms
or should lay down measures to encourage ARCs, which encourage investments, will tame this monster and keep NPAs within the limit, would help banks and financial institutes to focus on recovery plans.

2014-03-04

New Bank Licences: Silver line in dark clouds



After scrutinising the applications for new bank licences on various aspects, last week Bimal Jalan panel has submitted its report to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). Yes, this year RBI is planning to issue few new licences to some new players in Indian Financial system. The Central bank issued guidelines regarding licensing of new banks last year. This is the first attempt of licensing in last one decade since Yes Bank and Kotak Mahindra bank were entitled with suffix “Bank” against their name in 2003-04.

Banking system is core of any economy and banks its backbone. Strengthening this sector by providing new licences gives an edge over the existing one. As many as 25 players are in fray of banking licences which includes public sector player like India post and IDFC and private sector Anil Ambani group and Aditya Birla group. Few NBFCs (Bajaj Finance, Muthoot Finance etc) are also competing for new licences.

Public player like India post have greater chances of entitled with banks because of its strong nationwide distribution channel specifically in rural India and having experience in administrating a saving bank scheme and accepting PPF deposits.

Probability of NBFCs getting licences is also high, as these are already in financial business. If NBFCs are given preference to run a bank, then rural and semi urban consumer will be the ones who get maximum benefit because of their already existing network in rural areas. As NBFCs cannot take deposits their cost of funds are high as compared to banks. But when NBFCs are awarded with banking licence their cost of fund will plunge to the comparable cost prevailing in market.

As more players enter the banking space, intense competition among banks might benefit consumers. Banks will focus on reducing operational cost to maintain their market share or to consume market of others which in turn will result in charging low interest rates to consumer in long run. This competitive environment in banking system not only bring down the interest rates but also innovate the whole banking system with new people coming in with their new idea, new thinking style and with new strategies which make system work more efficiently.

India has population of over 1.2 billion of which only 35 percent of population has their bank account. To penetrate more in market, RBI made it mandatory for banks to open “One ATM in rural area with every three in urban area” and bank licences to new players will perform the task of catalyst in reaching out to remaining 65 percent of population which ultimately support the primary objective of penetrating the untouched market to greater extent.

The step taken by RBI is seen as “Silver line in dark clouds (which is hovering on Indian Banking System)” to strengthen Indian Banking system. This gives hope to many economists or to experts regarding expanding reach of Indian banks which make every penny countable and support untouched market to grow if implementation is done properly rather than mere hype.

2014-02-01

BITCOIN



“I ain’t say money is everything,
but it has got power to steal attention of  everyone”

And when it comes to something none less than money or very much of equivalent strength, has definitely got the power to pull attention of many from whatever business they are in. The thirst for money pushes them to show their wilful interest in any news which had shown glimpse to their eyes or even a breeze which had kissed their ears. No matter what the source is, it could be newspapers, it could be news channels, it could be the social networking sites or it could be the movies (eg: “Wolf of the Wall street”) people enjoys the flow (money) and swim with it. Well, money can buy you anything (from salt to software to experience to everything), “you name it and you have it”. And when it comes to some currency which in its nascent stage, gaining popularity day in and day out, which has drawn recognition of every institutional investors and make them watching its movement, every retail investor which are exploring every bit of opportunity for trying their luck. This has drawn heed of particularly every top management and pundits across the globe (whether it for good reason or for bad that is different thing) in very short span of time. Yes, here I am talking of newly developed currency BITCOIN!!!. 

What the heck “Bitcoin” is?

Bitcoin is a virtual currency system. The concept of Bitcoin was developed by Satoshi Nakamoto in the year 2009 who himself is a mystery. If you have bitcoin you could not physically buy goods by handing notes or coins. These are used for electronic trading purpose only. Every time you purchase something, that purchase transaction get logged digitally on transaction log which contain info like transaction id, time of transaction, who owns how many bitcoins (userid or nick name); basically it contain every piece of information about every bitcoin transaction and that is why this transaction log is called as ‘blockchain’. With every transaction the ownership of bitcoin keep on changing. The people who are constantly verifying the blockchain ensure that all the info is correct and updating every time a transaction is made. These people are called ‘miner’. These are the one who confirm the transaction and ensure that the transaction secure and processed properly and safely. And in return to their service these miners are paid by their vendors if form of bitcoin. This system is basically works on ‘peer to peer network’ means there is no controller or regulator or any authority govern this system. Every peer itself works as server as well as client. This Bitcoin system make all the currency transaction anonymous, no one will come to know about the transaction and any info regarding the transaction, not even about the senders and receiver.

How to get hold of bitcoin?

There are basically three ways by which one can get bitcoin:
1        1. Mining.
2        2. If you are producing or manufacturing something, you can sell it for bitcoin.
3    3. Through bitcoin exchange.

Where can one store them?

To store any currencies you need wallet likewise to store bitcoin a wallet is must, but this wallet is digital one on the hard disk of your computer, laptop or mobile and we call it as ‘Bitcoin Wallet’. Bitcoin wallet is similar to an app, you need to download it and install it on your hard disk. Bitcoin wallet basically store the private keys that you need to access a bitcoin address and spend you fund. It is advisable to maintain this wallet in offline mode and have a copy of this as well. This prevents you from cyber attacks.

How to value bitcoin?

Like valuation of any other currency, valuation of bitcoin is also relative (valued with respect to dollar) and solely depends on the very basic concept of demand and supply which says that if demand of some commodity increase its value shots up and with increase supply of that commodity its value dive down. There are approx 11 million bitcoin in system which are gradually gaining acceptance worldwide. A lot of biggies (like overstock.com, NBA's Sacramento Kings, Zynga – Bitpay payment service for players of “Farmville2”, “Castleville” and other games) started accepting payment in bitcoin, which has raised the demand for bitcoin in the market and ultimately its value.

Here's a graph covering few months of the relative value of bitcoins against US dollars. 

What are its advantages over existing currencies?

The first and the foremost lucrative feature that Bitcoin carries is, ‘no or very low transaction fee’. Any bank or any third party payment process basically charge fees to perform secure and safe transaction on customer’s behalf, which is not there in case of Bitcoin transaction and if there exist some fee, it is very low as compared to banks charges. Besides this, Bitcoin also provide alternative mode of payment to the user other than cash, credit or debit cards, or any other form of electronic payment. It provides security, transparency to transaction and to counterfeiting. No one can steal them as bitcoins doesn’t exist physically. Digital nature makes them easier to carry than cash, which could be beneficial to various economies where most of the transactions are carried out in form cash which again leads to less counterfeiting and less corruption.

The biggest problem with existing currencies is that they lose out their value with time because of government interference. Today, there are approx 11 million bitcoin in the system which is increasing every four year in geometric progression at 50% rate. The Bitcoin system is designed in such a way that maximum of 21 million bitcoins will ever be released which lower the possibility of bitcoins being inflated i.e. low inflation risk. As already discussed, Bitcoin anonymous transactions make them untraceable.

What are disadvantages of Bitcoin?

Since these bitcoin are still in nascent stage, people are not able to digest the idea of virtual currency, its safety & security. It is still in development stage, many governments do not levy tax to Bitcoin transactions but this behaviour may change in future which may make Bitcoin transactions more costly than other transaction. And Bitcoin may lose edge over other currencies which might result in crashing it value.

Though bitcoin is gaining popularity across the globe still these are not widely acceptable, people are still shy off accepting payment in bitcoin. Bitcoin transactions are untraceable, which is making it vulnerable to smugglers and to other illegal activities. With no central authority or processing agency, the payment once made is irreversible.

In an economy like ours (developing or under developed) where one bitcoin cost around 50000 INR or more, people find it difficult to buy their general stuff. Many believe that this virtual currency will further widen the gap between rich and poor. Rich are getting richer with increase in value of bitcoin and poor is getting even poorer as they can’t get hold of bitcoin.

Future scope

Well, at this point of time I am not sure of future of newly developed digital currency. Many experts believe Bitcoin as currency of new era while on the flip side many believe it gives boost to illegal activities.

If we talk about India, RBI already issued a warning that Bitcoin usage is unsafe due to potential money laundering and cyber security risks. While on the other hand, many corporate join bitcoin brigade to lobby for digital currency.

It will be interesting to see, how this new currency behave and how the world respond to it.